As we approach the midpoint of 2025, the real estate market in San Juan Capistrano, California, continues to captivate buyers, sellers, and investors alike. Nestled in the heart of South Orange County, this charming city blends historical allure with modern appeal, making it a perennial favorite for those seeking a slice of coastal paradise. With its Mediterranean climate, proximity to beaches, and a vibrant downtown scene, San Juan Capistrano remains a standout in the Southern California housing landscape. But what does the rest of 2025 hold for this unique market? As local realtors with deep roots in the community, we’ve pooled our insights to offer predictions for the year ahead. Whether you’re considering buying, selling, or simply keeping an eye on trends, here’s what we anticipate for San Juan Capistrano’s real estate market in 2025.
A Steady Climb in Home Prices, but at a Slower Pace
One of the most consistent trends we’ve observed in San Juan Capistrano over the past few years is the upward trajectory of home prices. As of early 2025, the median home price hovers around $1.4 million, reflecting the city’s desirability and limited inventory. For the remainder of the year, we predict this growth will continue, though at a more moderate pace than the double-digit surges seen in previous years. Our forecast aligns with broader California trends, where home values are expected to rise by about 4-5% in 2025. In San Juan Capistrano, we anticipate a similar increase, potentially pushing the median price closer to $1.45 million by year-end.
This slower growth is a welcome shift for buyers who’ve felt priced out in recent years. While the market remains competitive—still favoring sellers due to high demand and low supply—the days of frenzied bidding wars with offers far above asking price are tapering off. Sellers can still expect solid returns, especially in sought-after neighborhoods like Marbella Country Club and the Hunt Club, but pricing strategies will need to be sharp. Homes that are well-maintained, updated, and priced competitively will stand out, while overpriced listings may linger longer than they would have in 2024.
Interest Rates: A Game-Changer for Buyers
Interest rates have been a hot topic in real estate circles, and 2025 is shaping up to be a pivotal year. After a period of elevated rates, we’re seeing signs of stabilization and even a slight decline. As of March 2025, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is trending around 5.9%, a noticeable drop from the peaks of 2023 and 2024. For San Juan Capistrano buyers, this is a golden opportunity. Lower rates mean improved affordability, especially for first-time buyers or those upgrading from smaller homes.
We predict that this easing of rates will draw more buyers into the market throughout 2025, particularly in the spring and summer months when activity traditionally peaks. For a $1.4 million home with a 20% down payment, a drop from 6.5% to 5.9% could save buyers roughly $200 per month on their mortgage—a significant incentive. However, this influx of buyers could also heat up competition, especially for move-in-ready properties in the $1 million to $2 million range. Our advice? If you’re a buyer, act decisively when you find the right home, and lock in your rate as soon as possible to capitalize on these favorable conditions.
Inventory: A Slight Uptick Brings Balance
One of the defining characteristics of San Juan Capistrano’s market in recent years has been its tight inventory. Homeowners, reluctant to give up low mortgage rates from the pandemic era, have held onto their properties, creating a supply crunch. In 2025, we expect this to shift slightly. With rates easing and home values still strong, more sellers may feel confident listing their homes, particularly in the second half of the year. Active listings, which sat at around 90-100 homes in early 2025, could climb closer to 110-120 by fall.
This modest increase won’t flip the market into buyer territory, but it will bring a touch of balance. Neighborhoods like the Los Rios District, with its historic charm, and newer developments near downtown could see more turnover. For sellers, this means competition will rise—staging, professional photography, and strategic pricing will be key to attracting buyers. For buyers, a bit more choice could ease the pressure, though prime properties will still move quickly, often within 30 days of listing.
The Luxury Market: Steady Demand in High-End Enclaves
San Juan Capistrano’s luxury segment—think sprawling estates in gated communities like Marbella and Stoneridge—remains a standout in 2025. These properties, often priced above $2.5 million, cater to affluent buyers seeking privacy, views, and equestrian amenities. We predict steady demand here, driven by a mix of local move-up buyers and out-of-state transplants, particularly from high-cost metros like San Francisco and New York. Cash transactions, already a significant portion of luxury sales, will likely account for 25-30% of deals in this bracket.
What’s fueling this? The city’s unique blend of rural charm and proximity to urban hubs like Irvine and Newport Beach continues to draw wealthier buyers. Renovations in high-end neighborhoods are also boosting values, with updated homes fetching premium prices per square foot. Sellers in this market should focus on highlighting custom features—think chef’s kitchens, expansive outdoor spaces, or golf course views—to maximize returns.
Downtown Revitalization Boosts Appeal
The ongoing revitalization of San Juan Capistrano’s downtown core is a wildcard for 2025. Projects like the River Street Marketplace and upgrades to Capistrano Plaza have already elevated the area’s profile, drawing more visitors and residents to its quaint streets. We predict this momentum will spill over into the housing market, particularly for homes within walking distance of downtown. Properties near the Los Rios District or the Mission area could see heightened interest as buyers prioritize lifestyle and convenience.
This trend may also spark a mini-boom in smaller homes and condos, which often appeal to younger buyers or retirees looking to downsize. With median prices for two- and three-bedroom homes trending around $900,000-$1.2 million, these could become hot commodities. Sellers in this segment should emphasize proximity to amenities like Trevor’s at the Tracks or Five Vines Wine Bar to capture buyer interest.
Migration Patterns: Who’s Moving In and Out?
Migration continues to shape San Juan Capistrano’s market. In 2025, we expect a steady flow of buyers from pricier coastal cities like Laguna Beach and Newport Beach, drawn by relative affordability and larger lot sizes. At the same time, some residents may look outward to places like Las Vegas or San Diego, seeking lower costs or a change of pace. However, the net effect will likely be positive, with more newcomers than departures boosting demand.
Remote work remains a factor, too. With tech professionals and hybrid workers eyeing San Juan Capistrano for its quality of life, we anticipate continued interest in homes with dedicated office spaces or room for expansion. Properties
