Tustin, California, a vibrant city in Orange County, has experienced significant demographic and economic shifts over the past few decades. Nestled within the Los Angeles metropolitan area, Tustin’s blend of suburban charm, proximity to major urban centers, and access to amenities has made it an attractive destination for families, professionals, and retirees alike. However, with population growth comes increased pressure on the housing market, leading to rising prices, competitive bidding, and challenges in maintaining affordability. This blog post explores how Tustin’s population growth has influenced housing demand, delving into recent statistics, market trends, and the broader implications for residents and policymakers.
Tustin’s Population Growth: A Snapshot
Tustin’s population has seen steady growth since the early 2000s, driven by its appealing lifestyle and economic opportunities. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, Tustin’s population was 67,569 in 2000, rising to 79,902 by 2020, a 15% increase over two decades. However, recent estimates suggest a slight decline, with the population dropping to 76,971 in 2024, reflecting a -0.94% annual decrease since 2020. Despite this recent dip, the city’s population peaked at 80,967 in 2016, indicating a historical trend of growth that has shaped its housing landscape.
This growth has been fueled by several factors. Tustin’s proximity to major employment hubs in Irvine, Santa Ana, and Anaheim, coupled with its highly rated schools in the Tustin Unified School District, attracts families and professionals. The city’s diverse population—49.0% White, 22.5% Asian, 20.8% Other, and 40.0% Hispanic—reflects its appeal to a broad demographic, including immigrants, with 33% of residents born outside the U.S. in 2023. Additionally, Tustin’s Mediterranean climate, cultural amenities like The Market Place, and relatively high median household income ($108,435 in 2023) enhance its desirability.
However, the recent population decline, particularly post-2020, may be attributed to factors such as high housing costs, economic shifts following the COVID-19 pandemic, and out-migration to more affordable areas like Las Vegas or San Diego, as noted in Redfin’s migration data. Despite this, the historical growth trend continues to exert pressure on housing demand, as the city’s infrastructure and housing stock struggle to keep pace with past and potential future increases.
Housing Market Dynamics in Tustin
Tustin’s housing market is characterized by high demand, limited supply, and escalating prices, a direct consequence of its population growth and regional appeal. According to Redfin, the median home sale price in Tustin was $1.1 million in February 2025, a 9.0% increase from the previous year. RocketHomes reports a median price of $1,172,875 in December 2024, up 11.5% year-over-year, with prices per square foot rising to $678. These figures reflect a seller’s market, where homes receive multiple offers and sell quickly, averaging 36 days on the market in 2025 compared to 21 days the previous year.
The competitive nature of Tustin’s housing market is underscored by its Redfin competitiveness score of 81 out of 100. Homes often receive four offers on average, and the median sale price is 163% higher than the national average, reflecting the premium placed on living in this desirable area. The overall cost of living in Tustin is 56% higher than the national average, with housing being a significant driver.
Inventory remains a critical issue. In December 2024, Tustin had 83 homes for sale, a 10.8% decrease from November 2024, with inventory reductions across various bedroom types. This scarcity exacerbates competition, driving up prices and making it challenging for first-time buyers or those with moderate incomes to enter the market. The homeownership rate in Tustin is 50.9%, slightly below the national average of 65%, with 49.1% of residents renting, often at a median gross rent of $2,615 per month.
How Population Growth Drives Housing Demand
Population growth directly influences housing demand by increasing the number of households seeking residences. In Tustin, the rise in population from 2000 to 2016 added approximately 13,398 residents, necessitating additional housing units. The city’s 26,476 housing units in 2020, with 50.8% owner-occupied and 49.2% rented, indicate a balanced but strained market. The homeowner vacancy rate of 1.3% and rental vacancy rate of 5.8% suggest tight supply, particularly for ownership opportunities.
Demographic trends further amplify demand. The millennial cohort, now the largest generational group in the U.S., is entering prime homebuying ages, creating significant pressure on housing markets nationwide, including Tustin. This group’s demand for both rentals and ownership opportunities has been delayed by economic factors like the Great Recession, but post-2016, a “catch-up” in homeownership has intensified competition. Tustin’s relatively young median age of 36.8 and high proportion of families (73.75% of households) underscore this trend, as younger households seek homes suitable for raising children.
Immigration also plays a role. With 33% of Tustin’s residents born outside the U.S., many seek stable housing to establish roots, contributing to both rental and purchase demand. The city’s ethnic diversity, with significant Asian and Hispanic populations, reflects varied housing preferences, from single-family homes to condos and apartments, further straining the market.
Moreover, Tustin’s economic profile, with 84.57% of workers in white-collar jobs and a low unemployment rate of 4.0%, supports strong purchasing power, enabling residents to compete in a high-cost market. However, this also widens the affordability gap, as 11.4% of residents live below the poverty line, and rising costs disproportionately affect lower-income households.
Challenges and Consequences of Increased Housing Demand
The surge in housing demand driven by population growth has led to several challenges in Tustin:
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Affordability Crisis: With median home prices exceeding $1.1 million and monthly housing costs averaging $2,361, many residents, particularly younger or lower-income households, are priced out. The median property value of $890,600 in 2023 is nearly three times the national average, exacerbating inequities. Renters face similar challenges, with median rents of $2,615, pushing some to seek housing in less expensive neighboring areas.
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Limited Supply: Tustin’s housing stock, with 15.7% of units built after 2000, has not kept pace with demand. Post-Great Recession construction slowdowns, as noted in housing demography studies, have resulted in a persistent shortage, with new units failing to exceed household growth for nearly a decade. This scarcity fuels price increases and competitive bidding.
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Displacement and Gentrification: Demographic changes and rising property values can lead to gentrification, displacing long-term residents. As wealthier newcomers move in, driven by Tustin’s amenities and job opportunities, lower-income households may be pushed out, reshaping neighborhood identities. Urban planners must address these risks through affordable housing initiatives.
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Environmental and Infrastructure Strain: Population growth increases demand for infrastructure, including transportation, schools, and utilities. Tustin’s high population density (7,265 people per square mile) amplifies these pressures. Additionally, environmental risks like a projected 214% increase in days over 92°F and wildfire risks for 21% of properties complicate development decisions.
Opportunities and Policy Considerations
Addressing Tustin’s housing challenges requires strategic interventions. Urban planners and policymakers can leverage demographic data to design sustainable solutions:
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Increase Housing Supply: Encouraging mixed-use developments and higher-density housing near transit hubs like The Market Place can alleviate supply constraints. Incentives for developers to build affordable units could help balance the market.
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Affordable Housing Initiatives: Expanding inclusionary zoning and subsidized housing programs can mitigate displacement risks. Partnerships with nonprofits and federal programs, such as those offered by HUD, could provide funding for low-income housing.
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Infrastructure Investment: Upgrading transportation and utilities to accommodate population density will enhance livability. Tustin’s high broadband connectivity (91.8% of households) supports remote work, potentially reducing commute-related housing demand.
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Sustainable Development: Incorporating climate-resilient designs in new constructions, given the increasing heat and wildfire risks, will ensure long-term viability. Policies promoting green building standards can align with Tustin’s environmental goals.
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Community Engagement: Involving residents in planning processes can ensure developments reflect community needs, preserving Tustin’s cultural diversity and “City of Trees” identity.
Conclusion
Tustin’s population growth, while recently slowing, has left a lasting impact on its housing market, driving demand, escalating prices, and creating affordability challenges. The city’s appeal—rooted in its economic opportunities, diverse community, and suburban lifestyle—continues to attract residents, but limited housing supply and high costs threaten its inclusivity. By leveraging demographic insights and implementing targeted policies, Tustin can address these challenges, ensuring a balanced, equitable, and sustainable housing market for all its residents. As the city navigates its future, balancing growth with accessibility will be key to maintaining its status as a desirable place to call home.
